SJC - Impact of COVID Post Pandemic and Beyond March 2023
The JFA Institute, through resources provided by the John D. and
Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation’s Safety and Justice Challenge program, began tracking and analyzing six cities and counties participating in SJC (jurisdictions) and their jail and crime data in real time in March 2020 to monitor the impact of COVID mitigation activities. In October 2020, JFA expanded the study to eleven jurisdictions and collected the data through December 2020 to examine longer term trends and a potential rebound. This report serves as a second expansion to include data through 2021, though with a slightly altered set of the eleven jurisdictions.
SJC - Impact of COVID
Expanded Assessment June 2021
The JFA Institute, through resources provided by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation’s Safety and Justice Challenge program, began tracking and analyzing six cities and counties participating in SJC (jurisdictions) and their jail and crime data in real time in March 2020 to monitor the impact of COVID mitigation activities. In October 2020, JFA expanded the study to eleven jurisdictions and collected the data through December 2020 to examine longer term trends and a potential rebound. This report presents results of the study data collected through December 2020.
Tracking the Impact of SJC Initiatives 2015 - 2021
In 2015, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (MacArthur) launched an initiative to tackle one of America’s greatest social problems—overincarceration in local jurisdictions. Through the Safety and Justice Challenge (SJC), MacArthur supports cities and counties across the country to safely reduce the use and misuse of jails. Between 2015 and 2020, MacArthur invested over $234 million in this initiative to provide financial and technical support to local jurisdictions’ efforts to rethink justice systems and implement data-driven strategies to safely reduce jail populations. In 2015, a total of eighteen sites were funded as implementation sites , allowing collection of five years of follow-up data to see what impact the SJC has had on reducing jail populations.
This brief presents a tracking of the performance data of these jail populations, including original jail population projections, observed jail populations, jail population reduction targets, and incarceration rates.
This brief presents a tracking of the performance data of these jail populations, including original jail population projections, observed jail populations, jail population reduction targets, and incarceration rates.
SJC - Impact of COVID Preliminary Assessment September 2020
Beginning in March 2020 jail populations throughout the country began to decline as a number restrictions were imposed on the public to help mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Two key questions that were raised were 1) what were the major factors that reduced the jail population?and 2) what has been the impact of jail population reductions on public safety? To address these two questions, the Safety and Justice Challenge (SJC) funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation launched a pilot program in six of its SJC sites (Orleans Parish, City and County of San Francisco, Allegheny County, Clark County, Charleston County and Cook County). Each site provided timely data on reported crime, adult arrests, jail bookings, and the attributes of the jail population dating back to January 2019. This report presents the finding of this preliminary assessment.
SJC - The Value of Pretrial Risk Assessments
The JFA Institute, which has been advising the SJC on its reform methods and has helped numerous jurisdictions implement pretrial and other risk assessment systems, issued the attached defense of PRAs to inform the current discussion in the criminal justice community.The Safety and Justice Challenge (SJC), funded by the MacArthur oundation, is the nation’s largest initiative to directly attempt to 1) significantly reduce local jail populations and 2) reduce the level of racial and ethnic disparities (R&ED) in jail incarceration rates. A key tool for addressing both high incarceration rates and racial/ethnic disparities is the use of reliable and valid Pretrial Risk Assessment (PRA) instruments. Recently, the use of PRAs has been criticized with claims that, rather than reducing incarceration rates and racial/ethnic disparities, PRAs actually serve to exacerbate them.
The JFA Institute, which has been advising the SJC on its reform methods and has helped numerous jurisdictions implement pretrial and other risk assessment systems, is issuing the attached defense of PRAs to inform the current discussion in the criminal justice community.
Lancaster County, PA Needs Assessment Final Report Revised February 2023
The County of Lancaster, Pennsylvania recognized the need to build a new correctional facility to meet the needs of its justice system. A consultant team led by CGL and including JFA was contracted to represent the County in the effort to replace the current facility, which dates back to the mid-nineteenth century.
This Needs Assessment provides analysis of the Lancaster County criminal justice trends with special attention directed at the local prison population. The analysis was based on both aggregate and individual level data provided by the County Prison. Collectively, these data were used by JFA to construct a simulation model of the Lancaster County prison. From this model a forecast of the prison population was produced.
HFG - Projecting Florida Crime Rates and the Impact of Prison Population Reduction - January 2021
Though Florida’s crime rate has exceeded the national average for most of the past sixty years, the state has benefited from the national drop in crime that began in the early 1990s. Florida also participated in the prodigious national growth in imprisonment of the last forty-five years. Imprisonment in Florida peaked around 2010, declining slightly through 2019 and then more rapidly as a result of reduced admissions due to COVID-19 precautions.
Using data from the period 1980–2018, we developed quantitative models of the effects of various demographic and economic factors, as well as the imprisonment rate, on Florida’s violent, property, and total (combined) crime rates in that period. We then used these models to project crime trends into the 2020s, both with and without the assumption of a substantial reduction in imprisonment. Our projection is that crime rates in Florida will continue their decades-long decline, even under a markedly reduced imprisonment rate
Using data from the period 1980–2018, we developed quantitative models of the effects of various demographic and economic factors, as well as the imprisonment rate, on Florida’s violent, property, and total (combined) crime rates in that period. We then used these models to project crime trends into the 2020s, both with and without the assumption of a substantial reduction in imprisonment. Our projection is that crime rates in Florida will continue their decades-long decline, even under a markedly reduced imprisonment rate
HFG - Projecting Illinois Crime Rates and the Impact of Further Prison Population Reductions - November 2020
Illinois is one of several states considering how to reduce its prison population amid the pandemic and calls for an end to mass incarceration. In recent years, the state has taken steps to reduce its prison population through judicial discretion, bail reform, and diversion programs.As Illinois’ prison population declines and policymakers, prosecutors, and courts consider alternatives to incarceration, what is the risk to public safety? Is crime likely to increase or decline in the state as those convicted of crimes are released or diverted to other programs?
In this study, funded by The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, the authors conclude that Illinois crime rates, which have been on the decline since the 1990s, will continue to decline in a fluctuating pattern, with moderate year-to-year changes. This will be true even if Illinois reduces its prison population by an additional 25% over five years. The authors reached this conclusion by constructing a quantitative model that accounts for Illinois crime trends over nearly four decades and provides a basis for predicting crime rates in the near future.
This study is a companion to the 2020 Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation report Explaining the Past and Projecting Future Crime Rates, which examined national crime trends and reached similar conclusions about crime rates in the near future.
HFG - Past and Future Crime Rates - September 2020
To date criminologists have a poor record in anticipating future crime rates. As a result, they are ill-equipped to inform policy makers about the impact of criminal justice reforms on future crime. In this report, we assess the factors that explain changes in crime during the past three decades. Our analysis shows that macro-level economic and demographic factors best explain trends in violent and property crime. Together, those factors outweigh the impact of imprisonment rates on crime. We also show that it is possible to lower imprisonment rates without causing an increase in crime. Indeed, several states have done exactly that. Finally, we present models for projecting future crime rates. Based on these models, crime is projected to decrease over the next five years. The next step should be to apply similar analyses to individual states and local jurisdictions to advise policy makers on the implications of their criminal justice reform strategies for public safety.
New Mexico Public Defense System 5-Year Plan to
Reduce Representation
Deficiency
The cost of effective defense is substantial, but the costs of an overburdened defense are even greater. While New Mexico was the sixth state to undergo a workload assessment as reported in The New Mexico Project – An Analysis of The New Mexico Public Defense System and Attorney Workload Standards, it is the first state to seek this degree of formality in navigating a solution to the very serious problem of excessive public defense workloads. The New Mexico Project workload study defined the crisis — the state’s public defenders have three times the number of cases they can ethically handle. This five-year plan proposes steps to avert this crisis. Additionally, with this five-year plan, the state is now better positioned to take advantage of proposed federal legislation under consideration to support the constitutionally mandated – and costly – service of public defense.